The MAC REport

First Quarter, May 1995

This Report is published by McLaughlin Arguin Curreri, Realtors; any part MAY be reproduced with attribution.

The St. Thomas Real Estate Market

In this first Quarterly issue for 1995, we will be sharing our market research to give you an idea of the St. Thomas Real Estate Market. In the first section we will be looking at the total market, with some graphs showing trends for the past 6 years for all property. The next section shows the breakdown of sales prices for Houses, Condos, and Land. Then, in an effort to zero in on some specific markets, we have selected different size houses, and condos, and shown price frequency graphs for them. We are trying to give our clients and others an idea of "what's happening" on the island. We hope you will find this information helpful in understanding today's market.

Total Market

1994 statistics are compiled from various sources , and showed the first general market increase in the past 5 years. Total dollar value was up 18% over last year's figure to $60.3 Million. Home sales were up 27%. Total number of properties sold was up 8% from 1993, to 460. The chart below shows the relationships between total number of properties sold, and total dollar volume (in Millions) for the period 1988 through 1994. The period includes the building boom of the late 80's, with a booming economy in the States, the Hurricane Hugo period from September 1989 and including the recovery until 1991. The latter period was influenced strongly by the recession in the U.S., particularly the Northeast, the source of many tourists and settlers.

Houses

In the homes category, the number of houses sold (up 12% from 105 to 118), the average price (up 2% to $231,730, approaching the 1991 high) and the total dollar volume (up 14% to $27,302,000 ) all increased in 1994. See Chart below:

Condominiums

Condo sales were good in 1994, with numbers increasing 37% to 126, dollar volume up 49% to 19.6 Million, and the average price up 9% to $155,000. 56% were to VI residents, down from 60% last year.

Land

The number of parcels sold decreased in 1994, with numbers down 5% to 216, and dollar volume was also down 6% to $13.5 Million. The average price was almost the same as 1993 at $62,281. However, this figure is distorted by large parcels. The median is more meaningful. It rose from $37,000 to $40,000 per parcel.

THINGS ARE LOOKING UP!

In 1994 McLaughlin, Arguin Curreri, Realtors® saw good activity. Pent-up demand, and growing realism on the part of sellers, is producing more sales, at least in our office, where sales were 67% greater than they were in 1993.

What does all this mean as far as your property is concerned? We have prepared some other charts showing selling prices for Houses, Condos, and Land that have gotten results.

Analysis of Sales for 1994

House Sales

The Gross Statistics are shown in the Table below:

In an attempt to define the central tendency of the sales, we give you 5 values to consider. (Average is the total divided by the number of sales; Median is the number in the middle, i.e., there are an equal number above and below it. The Mode is the most common number.) The median seems the best choice, however the Histogram gives the best graphical illustration. You can see the actual number of sales in each "bin" (a $10,000 range).

The Chart Below shows a Histogram of the frequency of house sales in the various price ranges:

As can be seen, the numbers reach 5 at $110,000 and stay between 3-5 until $180,000, where they rise to 9 at $200,000. Thereafter, they stay around 3 or below, except for a peak of 7 at $250,000. There are 9 sales between $400,000 and $875,000 which are not shown for clarity.

Three Bedroom House Sales

As a further refinement, we have taken the most common home type; 3 bedrooms and 2 or more baths, and show their sales frequencies. Unfortunately, we generally don't have bedroom data on non-MLS sales, unless they have been used by our appraisal department for comparable sales. However, of 32 sales, the chart below shows a concentration of sales in the $190,000 to $340,000 range. Obviously, the main difference is likely to be neighborhood, but age, amenities, and apartments will also affect price.

Condominium Sales:

The Gross Statistics are shown in the Table below, followed by their Histogram:

As can be seen, the numbers reach 7 or more in three distinct areas: $50,000 to $60,000, $90,000 to $100,000, and $170,000 to $180,000. They are below 3 after $260,000. The majority of the market lies between $100,000 and $200,000.

Two Bedroom Condominium Sales

Again, we look at the most common size of condominium to see where the prices are falling.

As you can see, the sales are clustered in the $160,000 to $200,000 range, with a major peak at $180,000 to $190,000. This is where the primary market is for this size unit

LAND SALES:

As can be seen, the numbers peak with over 70 sales in the $35 to 45,000 ranges, and tail off rapidly after that. The majority of the market is between $35,000 and $55,000. Typically, the lot size is 1/2 Acre.

Land Sales Vs. MLS Listings 1994

This chart shows where the sales (blue) were vs. where the current listings (red) are priced. The most frequent sales are from $35 to $65,000, while the pricing is between $45 to $75,000, with another peak at $125,000, so you can see the market is generally below the asking prices. There are almost none priced in the area of the majority of sales.

Summing Up

The St. Thomas Real Estate market is slowly improving, with sales up 18% in dollar volume in 1994. This increase has been seen in all segments of the market except land, where the market declined. There doesn't seem to be a major boom in sight, but a moderate growth should continue in 1995. A recent development is the availability of property insurance at more reasonable prices, said to be 20% lower than last year. That should free up more buyer's dollars for their house payments, allowing them to buy more house.

McLaughlin Arguin & Curreri, Realtors